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Expert answer · 2 min read

Is my free shipping threshold helping or hurting conversion?

I'm struggling to understand the impact of my free shipping threshold on overall store conversion rates. While I've set a minimum order value to trigger free shipping, I'm not sure if this strategy is encouraging customers to add more items to their cart or if it's actually causing cart abandonment. I need clear insights into how my current free shipping policy affects customer behavior, average order value, and ultimately, my store's conversion performance. What metrics should I analyze, and how can I optimize my free shipping strategy to maximize conversions?
Muhammed Tüfekyapan

Muhammed Tüfekyapan

Founder & CEO, Growth Suite ·

The short answer

Measure pop-up performance by offer redemption rate (target 3-8% of visitors who see the offer), conversion rate of visitors who redeem vs those who don't, and the net revenue impact - not just impression count or close rate.

In depth

Pop-Up Performance Measurement: The Metrics That Matter

Most stores measure pop-up performance by the wrong metrics. Impression rate tells you how many visitors saw the popup. Close rate tells you how many dismissed it. Neither tells you whether the popup improved revenue. The metrics that actually matter are redemption rate, incremental conversion, and net revenue impact.

Pop-Up Performance Metrics Framework

MetricFormulaTarget Range
Offer impression rateImpressions / Total sessions10-30% (depends on trigger)
Offer redemption rateRedemptions / Impressions3-8% (good = 6%+)
Close-to-purchase ratePurchases by closers / Closers who saw offerCompare to non-offer CVR
Incremental conversionOffer CVR - baseline CVRShould be positive
Net revenue impactOffer revenue - (discount cost + cannibalized full-price revenue)Must be positive

The Cannibalization Test

Determine whether your popup is generating new revenue or discounting existing revenue:

  • - Week 1: Run popup campaign, measure: total orders, % with offer, avg offer order value
  • - Week 2: Pause popup, measure: total orders, avg order value, total revenue
  • - Compare week-over-week: if total revenue is similar with popup off, the popup is cannibalistic
  • - Adjust: narrow targeting to walk-away visitors only to reduce cannibalization

Growth Suite's Funnel Report separates offer-influenced revenue from total revenue, showing you exactly how much incremental revenue your campaigns generate beyond what would have converted at full price. This eliminates the guesswork of the manual cannibalization test and provides continuous measurement rather than a two-week experiment window.

Performance Optimization Cycle

  • - Review metrics weekly for active campaigns; monthly for ongoing evergreen campaigns
  • - If redemption rate under 2%: recalibrate trigger (audience too narrow or too broad)
  • - If redemption rate over 10%: offer may be too aggressive; test with smaller discount
  • - If net revenue impact is negative: audience targeting is showing offer to dedicated buyers - narrow criteria

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