Can I exclude sale items from discount codes?
Muhammed Tüfekyapan
Founder & CEO
TL;DR - Quick Answer
Complete Expert Analysis
Discount Campaign Break-Even Analysis
Every discount campaign has a break-even point - the number of incremental conversions needed before the campaign becomes profitable. Running campaigns below break-even is subsidizing purchases you would have gotten anyway.
Break-Even Formula
Total Campaign Cost = (Total Redemptions x Discount Amount) + Campaign Delivery Cost
Incremental Revenue Needed = Total Campaign Cost / Gross Margin %
Break-Even Orders = Incremental Revenue Needed / Average Order Value
Example: 500 redemptions x $15 discount + $100 delivery = $7,600 cost
At 40% GM: Need $19,000 incremental revenue = ~190 incremental orders
Break-Even by Discount Level
| Discount | Incremental Orders Needed | Feasibility |
|---|---|---|
| 10% off on $80 AOV, 40% GM | 33 incremental per 100 redemptions | Feasible with good targeting |
| 20% off on $80 AOV, 40% GM | 67 incremental per 100 redemptions | Requires precise targeting |
| 30% off on $80 AOV, 40% GM | Exceeds GM - always loses money | Avoid at 40% margin |
Growth Suite: Purchase Intent Prediction maximizes incremental order percentage by targeting only walk-away customers - ensuring a higher proportion of redemptions are truly incremental, not cannibalized full-price orders.
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With over a decade of experience in e-commerce optimization, Muhammed founded Growth Suite to help Shopify merchants maximize their conversion rates through intelligent behavior tracking and personalized offers. His expertise in growth strategies and conversion optimization has helped thousands of online stores increase their revenue.
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